Oversold and ready to rally?

Wow, So I have not posted for a while . Anyway this pullback has reached a level where stocks look attractive again.
It looks like we are way oversold, which means:
1. We can bounce.
2. We can rally hard.
3. We can go down less slowly .

I think its # 1 and hoping for # 2 as we near year end. Earnings have been good .
I have calls on APPL, MS, BAC etc. I would like to get some GS calls if it goes to 177 or so.
Lets see.

Posting after a long time

A post after a loooong time, Markets at a crucial point. S&P500 is at 980 has been the lined in sand for many times since 1998.
So while it looks like we will back off from here , I think markets will breakout and head higher eventually.
How high that depends on the data flow. But if 980 is captured convincingly then I think we can see 1150 pretty soon.
On the downside 940 is obvious support.
A lot is being talked about China, how it is going to lead us to enormous growth. India and Brazil too but most people focus on China.
I was watching TV and one money manager said according to figures from many sources , China economy is going to be equal to US in 2027 and bigger by 2050.
So I am posting 2 articles on which says China is going to lead us out of the recession and the other argues otherwise.
Both are from minyanville.com.
1.
Why China Won't Save the Day .
2.Three Reasons Why China Will Save the Day .

Good Luck.

Pullback done?

The S&P 500 pullbacked to the 200 DMA and jumped right back up. After some consolidation it is now near 920.
If it clears 920 , that will be a huge positive.
Today evening RIMM reports earnings and if they are good or lets say the market likes it, then expect S&P 950 and higher very soon.
But if not then 900 can become support which has to be held.
So right now things look good for a rally but the news has to be good.
I like AAPL and MSFT both here , the technicals look good and also BAC looks fine.
While all this is going on, Bio-techs have been rallying.
So it looks like there are lots of good stocks out there for people to buy.
But 950 has to be cleared on the S&P 500 , else it just becomes a trading range. But I do feel that the good strong stocks should do fine and not collapse even if the markets do.
Of course these days things change so fast that before you know it ahuge rally becomes a down day.
So be careful and good luck.

Markets rally yet again

Over the last many weeks , the markets pullback for maximum a day and nowadays not even that, the markets falls and recover by end of day.
Some say its because fund managers , who they say have a lot of cash , are being anxious and jumping in before quarter end.
Now I am not sure if thats true or not but what is true that this market does not want to pullback.
So I am taking these guys words as a good guide.
What does that mean, that means if these managers are jumping in , then they will not stop now , as June end is Quarter end and they want to have the good performers on their books.
So I am buying here. Will look to get some AAPL and BAC too.

Natural gas analysis.

Bloomberg.com has a great article on Natural gas today, here is the link.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anGqYysKmt9k

Now you might say but are these guys right? well maybe yes maybe no.
But this is how I look at it. Jeff Cooper , one of my fav. analyst/expert likes to say "stocks do not move , they are moved ".
I do believe this and that's why I feel that as people start looking to buy Natural gas, it will stop its downtrend and start picking up slowly and steadily.
Is this a sure thing ? no way. But since we have rallied so much and natural gas has not participated , there will be many who might jump in on this and take it up.

All I do is look at the chart and make sure its looks good. I am thinking of buying UNG , which is an ETF which tracks natural gas.
There are many companies like CHK etc. but I think UNG is what I will start with.
Take a look and see if it works for you.

BTW I am looking to buy AAPL if it falls here. 120 would be perfect for me as of now, but it might not get there.

Good Luck.

Read these articles from experts.

Here are some good articles on the markets/stocks.

From minyanville.com
Why Microsoft will rise again.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-GOOG-MSFT-ek-Windows-kodak/index/a/22880/from/ameritrade

Jeff Saut: 4 Reasons Why Being Bearish Now Is a Mistake
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/USO-VIX-spx-SPY-bull-bear/index/a/22872/from/ameritrade

Pick a Side: Hyperinflation or Deflation?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/dollar-Fed-Credit-debt-assets-deflation/index/a/22904/from/ameritrade

Anatomy of a Losing Trade
James Kostohryz
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/VIX-spx-XLF-SP500-trading-INVESTING/index/a/22957/from/ameritrade


Is Dendreon Immune to Risk?
Smita Sadana
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/biotech-db-DNDN-JNJ-drug-provenge/index/a/22956/from/ameritrade

Markets , Momentum vs Fundamentals/Technicals

One thing is clear , we need to consolidate the gains but the momentum is so strong , markets do not want to stop.
Every other day some big analysts jumps on the bandwagon saying we could go higher .
It seems for S&P 500 950 is a major obstacle. But beyond that , obviously, 1000 is a clear "magnet".
Gold seems like taking its time to get to 1000. But the more it consolidates below 1000, the better the break out imho.
We can pullback at any time but CSCO, MSFT and HPQ show good strength.
These are low beta stocks with lower volatility.
The high betas like AAPL GOOG RIMM AMZN , all show strength.
AAPL is getting good words from many many analysts I follow.Technical/Fundamental , all kinda people like it.
I will be looking at a good entry point for it.
Oil is overbought , but the weak US$ and inflation talk keeps pushing it higher.
About overbought/oversold, there is no rule the overbought cannot rise more and oversold cannot fall more.
As you have seen the market prove it recently. It just means you have to buy it carefully and keep positions smaller.