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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Is this the right time to Buy a new house?

The answer will depend on who you ask. The folks at the Realtors and others related to that business will say yes, "home prices have come down so much" and interest rates are down so much etc etc. Many friends ask me this question.
I am no housing expert but I have some common sense.
But read this artcile at Bloomberg.
Clearly if they are working on a plan to get Mortgage interest rates to 4.5% for 30 years fixed kind of loans, then why bother now and why not wait.
But even without that program the rates are down to around 5.3%. So should one buy?
Depends on you specific situation. Lets say you buy a house and it falls in value, are you ok with that, if you are buying to live there for a long time, if you can pay the mortgage even if you lose your job , then it might not matter. House prices have in no way bottomed in my opinion , no matter what the guys on TV tell you.
Click here for todays housing data on bloomberg.com.
There are many many people out there who are calling this a bottom for housing, well just check how many times have they called for a bottom before in the past 2 years.
If the recession is not over then how has housing bottomed? Just because prices have fallen too much?
If they need a new plan to bring interest rates to 4.5% for mortgages then it has certainly not bottomed now has it?
Also some people talk as if if you don't buy it now , prices will go up like they did in 2000-2002.
Really? you think after a HUGE recession prices will go up as soon as they bottom? Will they not just stagnate? One would think so.
Anything which goes up or down in a hurry , first stabilizes before changing the course.
So why should anyone try to hurry and buy given all this?
If you find your dream home and get a loan for it now and can afford it even if you lose your job , then maybe you can go ahead and buy. If you are getting a foreclosed home for very cheap maybe you can buy.
But let the folks who try to call bottom in housing not fool you.
Read this and this from bloomberg.com.
There is a case-shiller index for housing data. Try to follow that index though it will be lagging in nature. Meaning once housing really bottoms it will tell you only with a delay as it does not forecast but reports data.
Its worth it , especially if you believe that before going up , home prices will stagnate for a looong period after bottoming out. I certainly believe that.

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