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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

No use trying to short this strong market

The markets want to rally, no matter what. All indications are that we can see the S&P 500 reach 940 and as much as 965.
That is where resistance is. I have heard numbers of 1000 and beyond but lets first see it cross 950-960 zone.
Momentum is high but volume is low.
So I would say do not try to short this market. If one must then have very small position sizes.
The markets can be very irrational at times. It happened to the downside now its time for the upside too I guess.
I am buying some high momentum tech and some solars. Also I have some Gold ETF's.
One thing I am also doing is keeping track of companies which had bad earnings and fell after that. Most of them are rallying now. I think once the momentum is gone , they will fall fast, just a guess.
Be careful and good luck.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Market commentary by Jeff Cooper on minyanville.com

I have been following Cooper for quite a few years now and I know he is good. Click on the link below for the article.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/AAPL-rimm-BIDU-uup-spx/index/a/22785

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Read this article by Jeff Saut

I found this on minyanville.com , very good .
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/dow-markets-spx-csx-theory-bottom/index/a/22769

Watch S&P 875 closely

So the markets finally lose momentum and come down , now 880/875 area is good support and we should bounce there , at least a bit. But if that level breaks on a closing basis, its looks like the next support is way below .
Now it might not go to 875 in a hurry, first support is of course 900. But the sooner it goes there the better the bounce imho.
The semi's ( etf- SMH ) have been looking strong , but if they fall on heavy volume , that will be not good for TECH in general.
Good Luck.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Looks like markets will fall more

Looks like the markets will fall more before any more rallies, it is the nature of the fall and the rise after that, that will determine the strength of this market.
Read what an economist, not just an ordinary one, has to say .

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Markets at key levels.

The markets have pulled back. Some will say they are consolidating , some will say this is the start of another huge fall.
The volume on the pullback has been average to above average, in tech it has been heavy.
Today's rally is on low volume so far.
The semiconductors, which acc. to many are a key sector, have broken important support levels.
Tomorrow is also options expiration and that means next week we can see further pullbacks.
I have puts on QQQQ and also have some SKF and FAZ stocks, all bearish positions.
I have very few positions though, if this is a real pullback and we run off to new highs , then my tight stops will get me out and I will buy some stuff.

But as of now everything looks like it wants to go down before going up.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Subprime was an isolated incidence right?

Forgot to mention that the guys running the stress tests are the same who said, on many occasions, that sub-prime was an isolated incidence.
Now they say the banks look great and also the economy is going to be perfect come year end.
This is from those who never thought we had any problem in the first place.
Yeah ! that's a good reason to trust these Einstein's.
The way I look at it: Earnings estimates were down so much so fast that this quarter companies beat them rather easily.
But lets see what happens over a period of time. Not the next quarter but next few quarters.
Lets see if these banks make some real money not borrowed money from taxpayers.

I want to see the economy on a firm footing, then we will be out of the woods.
When something falls 50% , then it takes a 100% rally to get back to break even.
Just keep that in mind.

Stress Tests look like what someone called them , good PR

These bank stress tests are being called reliable by many respected people on wall street.
But my respect for these guys is on the way down.
Read this article by Barry Ritholtz on his blog.
Watered down Stress tests? Well anyone can tell that these tests were not supposed to tell the whole truth . What? they were going to give us the truth as it is? and risk burying the banks?
But the banks could negotiate? Watered down stress tests, which were anyways supposed to be " not so harsh"?
Man it looks like the same thing over and over again.
If thats not enough , read this ,again from Barry's blog. Let me print here the horrific part from that article
"Just by way of example, Barry Ritholtz, chief of [Fusion IQ] seems more than a tad aghast at the idea that Messrs. Geithner and Bernanke, after duly weighing the results of their not-exactly-stressful tests, have concluded that banks will be fine in the future with 25-to-l leverage (Tier 1 capital equal to 4% of risk-weighted assets)."
25-1 leverage? WHOA!!!!!!!
Wasn't 30-1 leverage what caused these issues in the first place, so they now allow 25-1 leverage?
For causing on of the biggest meltdowns , all these banks get is a slap on the wrist and we are back to the same things, at least thats hat it looks like.

BTW , This is just what is happening, the long term picture. This does not mean traders should go out and short banks and other stocks.
What these means is things are not that great with the banks as hey seem to be and that is just my humble opinion.
If the chart looks good I will buy any stock but I will be very careful if I buy a bank for a trade.
A very tight stop.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

What a rally!

WOW !, what a rally, the volume is very low but still , what a rally. I never thought it could rally so much.
Well thats why its tough to make money consistently in the markets.
I am sticking to what I have and not doing much. We are so overbought I cannot buy anything more here. So I will wait patiently unless is find some very good stocks.
VMW seems like its good but lets see.
Silver is one commodity I would like to buy here , but I am in no hurry.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Couple of good websites for traders

Have a look at these websites if you are interested in trading , it can be to learn about being a good trader or to get good picks.
www.hardrightedge.com
www.tickerville.com

About Me

I am into stocks, options, all kinda sports, Music, food, Spirituality etc.
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