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Monday, December 29, 2008

Retailers in trouble, 10 to 26% to go Bankrupt acc. to this article.

Its no surprise that Retailers are having a bad time as consumers spend less.
But over at clusterstock.com there is this article which says 10-26% of Retailers could go Bankrupt in the next 2 years.
It was my assumption that in a recession Walmart does very well. They did in the last slowdown in 2001-02. This time Walmart has not yet shown this in its stock , look at this chart , its similar to many other companies. But maybe now we will see people spending more at Walmart to save money.
It is very important for everyone to keep in mind that the ecomonic forecastors, analysts etc. always are either bulllish or bearish , depending on the economic picture they get more coverage.
Meaning during a financial boom no one wants to interview or cover a Bear or someone who warns of the coming recession. Similarly during a downturn more attention is paid to those who are or have been predicting this.
But just like the bulls get carried away ( almost always) the bears too, in my opinion , get carried away.
So now that we have almost all negative headlines, it seems no one wants to cover the Bulls and what they have to say.
I would recommend reading some level headed bulls and bears like Barry Ritholtz blog , there is a link to that over on the right on my blog. Also check out the other blog. I think these people talk sense and try not to build their own theories.
While it would be best to listen to those who have been right, like Peter Schiff and some others, if you read what Mr. Schiff predicts about the future now, one will likely want to go live in a Nuclear shelter imo.
Then there is this Russian professor who it seems is calling for the divided states. Click here for the clusterstock.com story.
In my opinion such people are always predicting something either to get attention or the person has no clue.
Remember things look the best at market tops and worst at bottoms.
I also like Bill Fleckenstein a lot. Check out his posts here.

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