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Monday, December 22, 2008

Santa Rally

Despite the recent weakness and bad news we can still get a Rally. This is one of he best times of the year for stocks and markets to rally.
But the recent put/call ratio is too low , so the rally might not be a big one . The numbers can change though .
The VIX has been moving lower even on some down days , this helps the bulls. Also the volume was low today as the markets tested some support levels.
Also there are some reports suggesting that online retailers are not having a good holiday season, but keep in mind that despite all the bad news we can still rally. Why? all the bad news is already factored into stocks, people know that sales will be down.
No one might come out with bad news at this time of the year and that will keep the bias upward. But if someone does then a test of recent lows is probable.
I still feel that this market is just for traders that too with very limited exposure, small sizes and tight stops.
Oil ( USO ) looks pretty good for a trade and Gold ( GLD ) needs to pullback a bit.
Agriculture was down today, Jim Rogers must be buying more .
Jan 09 will be earnings season and by then the earnings picture will get clearer, somewhat.

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