APPLE , Inc charts vs real story

I think AAPL ( ticker for Apple , inc) is a good example of how the charts shows one thing and what we hear day ti day show another thing.
Now aapl is a good company acc. to anyone who has anything to do with the markets except a few. The company has products which are always in demand.
But of late many things have affected the stock. The news can be summed up , acc. to me , in the following way.
1. The recession means Apples high end stuff is not selling as much and whats selling is low margin stuff.
2. A company which has never compromised quality has started selling stuff at Walmart, nothing against Walmart but the heavy discount on the iphone is something which has got to be taken into account.
3. Apple is always very conservative in their guidance which is good but it is well know and most analysts expect great things in the earnings report.
4. MAC sales , these were growing a lot till the last quarter and now they are supposed to come in lower then before. Low growth.
5. The companies dependence on Steve Jobs , recently news is floating around that he might quit and what then?

If you look at the chart, it has done badly, but look at the daily chart, it shows good signs of turning around in my opinion. Click here for the chart.
I see this as a triangle with all the indicators showing good improvement, the RSI, The MACD etc. The ADX shows no trend after that huge fall.

Now usually a triangle is resolved in the direction of the previous trend, which is down. also a breakout above 95 will resolve it upwards and breakdown below 85 would be resumption of a downtrend.
But this is just a daily chart, if you look at the weekly , you see how bad the last few month have been for apple. Click here.

The weekly shows how important the 100 level is and how the recent fall has damaged it.
But that's just technical analysis.
If Apple comes out with great earnings it will just zoom ahead.
Acc. to yahoo finance the short ratio is just 0.6 with only 2.4%of float being short. This according to me is very low.
So not much in short covering gains I think.
Now apple is the most influential member of Nasdaq 100 ( click here for the qqqq % holdings ).
I am assuming that most fund managers hold apple and even those who do not and hold Nasdaq 100 or SP500 are indirectly affected by it.

With all the recent rallies Apple has just done nothing great. If earnings are not good then the stock is going to be hit again with many more selling and the whole Steve Jobs not giving the key note at Mac world etc. just makes it more difficult.

Given all this, though the daily chart looks good to me, I am passing on apple until the volume really improves and it breaks the 94-95 area clearly on good strength.
Plus the 100 area will act as resistance and has to be taken out on good volume. IMO only then can you look at apple as a long investment, until then its just a trade.
Now lets see the other side. How low can it go ? Well below 85 there is good support in the 70-75 zone. But if that does not hold then its 65 and then that low at 50 where it went briefly in July of 06 .
I remember that I passed on that trade and it just zoomed ahead. It fell there because of the options backdating issues which basically did not amount to much .

Also if it goes up, then there is heavy resistance at 100, 115 and 125.
I am sure many people believe this is an investment of a lifetime and its very cheap. But if they are not selling the high margin stuff then its tough to see how apple stock performs good.

IMO fundamental analysis is key but its not easy and therefore its easy to do Technical analysis on the chart as you know what smart money is doing. But that's why Technical analysis is good for traders .
I will write a bit on the sentiment stuff later for apple and why it can still rally.