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Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Breakout? or bull trap

It seems the markets are very happy about the govt/fed setting up a "bad bank".
This bank is supposed to buy all the toxic paper from all the banks. This was the original purpose of the TARP.
OK a lot more intelligent people who know a lot more about that will debate about that. My goal is to make money in these moves in the market.
It seems we have broken out , but 2 things worry me, the low p/c ratio and the low volume. Also the markets are not oversold anymore and not overbought, so we can go up or down.
The fed is going to speak at 2:15 pm EST. That will be important as in not what they speak, but what the markets do after that. "The reaction to the news is more important than the news", at least in the short term.
So given all this , the best path to do is hang on to the longs/calls and/or buy some more stuff,expecting more upside , till the markets prove us wrong.
But I am not thinking of that because of the low p/c and low volume.
Best would be to have some calls and some puts with tight stops. SO if the markets continue the upside we gain and if they turn down we make some money and get out of the calls quickly.
So I am thinking of APPL calls ( triangle breakout remember?) and RIMM puts, resistance in the 55-56 zone.
USO touched 28.63 and is now trying to move higher. Lets keep that in mind too.
But after 2:15 it will be so volatile and the markets will make huge moves up and down and finally some move will stick.
Lets wait for that.
There are just too many parameters out there, so lets try to keep it simple and not make bad decisions. No one said trading is simple.

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