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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Intel to miss reduced forecast (even after it reduced it by $1 Billion .)

Intel is going to miss their numbers even after the reduced them huge a couple months ago. Read the story here .
Not good huh?
The markets were rallying good but then this news.
About the put/call ratio which i keep talking about. The put/call ratio is a contrary indicator. Meaning when everyone is bullish the markets pullback go down and when everyone is bearish they do good.
Of course its not that simple and has many other conditions. Last fall when the markets fell the put/call was very high for a long time .
No indicator in itself can forecast anything. But yesterday the markets were overbought, the index put/call was below 1.00 ( meaning folks were very bullish ) and the equity ( stocks ) p/c was 0.64( again traders were very bullish).
So when we get late in a rally ( near overbought ) and the p/c comes in this low that shows that people are way too bullish and probably the markets will pullback at least.
Once we get the pullback then we look at the volume and decide if its just a pullback or something worse.
The market breadth ( meaning stocks going up v/s stocks going down ) has been good in this rally. So now as companies warn and surprise as earnings season is near, lets see if we get a small pullback or we again go towards last quarter lows.
As of now the feeling is that this will be a pullback and we rally again.
Lets see.

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