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Friday, January 23, 2009

Not buying GLD / GOLD just yet.

Gold is marching ahead, but I will wait for a pullback. Chasing anything has not given me much profits.
AMZN looks strong. Oil is "backing and filling" meaning getting ready for a strong move ahead.
I am looking at APPL and RIMM and also BRCM. But the put/call ratio is coming in very low meaning folks are getting rather bullish. This is a great contrarian signal meaning the rally will not be strong.
That's one reason why I am so skeptical and not jumping in. I should have kept my GLD calls.
But that's what trading is all about. It looks like the US$ is going to remain strong for some time given the weakness in other countries. Lets see how high GOLD can really go given that.
Though it might have "decoupled" from the inverse ratio to the US$ , it does not happen overnight but its a process. I am sure many traders will look at the strong US$ and sell some GLD. If not then there will be some pullback anyways.
Meanwhile GLD is going much higher compared to the GOLD move.

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