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Thursday, February 5, 2009

High volatiltiy and we have NFP data tomorrow

NFP = non farm payrolls also knows as the jobs data . Tomorrow we will get the Jobs data for Jan09 and many are predicting a very high number , around 500K just like they did in Dec08. In dec it came in low and that makes it interesting this time.
If it comes in low again then we will rally I think, but if it comes in as expected then what do we do? If its very very high , higher than expected then of course people will sell.
But honestly is ti news now that the economy is losing many jobs? Markets have discounted that, problem is we keep losing jobs so the forward looking mechanism of the markets might not find any signs of the economy picking up.
I am not doing much and just watching. The p/c is low again and we are not oversold.
The markets can rally and traders should try to make use of that but I think the risk/reward here is not that great.
But look at stocks like aapl, amzn , akam which are going higher after earnings. Also lots of folks pushing CAT higher. All in all, it can be a self-fulling mechanism as traders push markets higher.
My view is this market is for the very nimble traders who can have some longs and shorts at the same time, with tight stops and remember to allocate very less capital to each trade.
Lastly do not forget to take profits.

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