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Monday, March 30, 2009

Good pullback or end of the rally?

So here we go again, is this a good pullback or beginning of the the next leg of the downturn?
In my opinion it is a pullback , a vicious pullback, but a pullback.
We will see another rally but there are no guarantees . We start the earnings season and this is the time when companies who cannot meet earnings estimates start warning, so lets hope those warnings are minimal.
The P/C has turned very high which is good news for the bulls. But remember the P/C was no use in predicting the rally. Even then a high p/c is a good contrarian signal.
Also this is quarter end so things are volatile.

Its not time to buy a lot and be mega bullish but its not the time to be mega bearish and short. A little bit of neutral with some buys and some shorts should help.

APPL, RIMM, AMZN, VMW, USO all look good. But if this pullback gains momentum it could be nasty. I am keeping trade sizes small.
Natural Gas (UNG is the ETF to track it ) is a real confusing , it is at the lows again after having a great week on good volume. Does it bounce here or does it fall apart? Wait and watch I guess.

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