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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

The rally needs a short break?

This rally has been very strong, though on low volume. But other than the nasdaq fall couple days ago, it has been a great rally. Veteran traders say the rally can last from 3 weeks to 6 weeks.
But it will have pullbacks in between. A sharp day or 2 of pullback . Do not get excited and short away and also do not just get on the band wagon and buy.
Look at good stocks to buy and keep the shorts on you checklist. Get a good entry point.
Check out UNG, natural gas, looks like it has not taken part in the rally yet and might join in. Careful though, why has it not rallied yet? I am a trader so I have bought a few calls.
Also there is lot of talk that Oil is going to break through 50 this time and go on a little bit above that.
When the markets are rallying and people are puring money into something , then join in imo, do not short right away just because sentiment is giddy. That takes time.
The low p/c has not bothered this market rally at all. So I am going to ignore it right now until its gets very extreme.

Also this is options expiration (OE) week and the tendency, just the tendency , is to continue the week with the already existing trend , which is higher now. So expect a rally into Friday with minor pullbacks.
Also the tendency is for the week after the OE for the markets to pullback.
these tendencies change when too many people get on board, that's just the way the markets are.

Another thing , IBM buying SUN micro should put a lot of confidence in the markets are that says deals are getting done. Menaing credit is available, thats huge news and bullish.

Good luck.

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