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Saturday, May 9, 2009

Stress Tests look like what someone called them , good PR

These bank stress tests are being called reliable by many respected people on wall street.
But my respect for these guys is on the way down.
Read this article by Barry Ritholtz on his blog.
Watered down Stress tests? Well anyone can tell that these tests were not supposed to tell the whole truth . What? they were going to give us the truth as it is? and risk burying the banks?
But the banks could negotiate? Watered down stress tests, which were anyways supposed to be " not so harsh"?
Man it looks like the same thing over and over again.
If thats not enough , read this ,again from Barry's blog. Let me print here the horrific part from that article
"Just by way of example, Barry Ritholtz, chief of [Fusion IQ] seems more than a tad aghast at the idea that Messrs. Geithner and Bernanke, after duly weighing the results of their not-exactly-stressful tests, have concluded that banks will be fine in the future with 25-to-l leverage (Tier 1 capital equal to 4% of risk-weighted assets)."
25-1 leverage? WHOA!!!!!!!
Wasn't 30-1 leverage what caused these issues in the first place, so they now allow 25-1 leverage?
For causing on of the biggest meltdowns , all these banks get is a slap on the wrist and we are back to the same things, at least thats hat it looks like.

BTW , This is just what is happening, the long term picture. This does not mean traders should go out and short banks and other stocks.
What these means is things are not that great with the banks as hey seem to be and that is just my humble opinion.
If the chart looks good I will buy any stock but I will be very careful if I buy a bank for a trade.
A very tight stop.

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