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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

USO (Crude Oil ETf ) shows good signs of moving up

The 60 minute chart of USO ( oil etf ) shows a very good pattern. Click here for the chart.
The circle's show a Cup and Handle pattern, when the price breaks above the line at the top of this pattern ( shown by the blue line at $31), then that's a technical break-out and the prices should continue to at least $34.This is reached by taking the top of the pattern $31 and subtracting the bottom of the "cup" which is approx 28 or 27.73 to be precise. so 31-28 = 3. and then you have the 3 and add it to the breakout point, so 31 + 3 = 34. Therefore I say approx $34 is where USO might go.
Now this is all technical stuff and there is no guarantee it will go there.
But those using Technical analysis as a tool will see this pattern and look at it as a good risk/reward and probably buy this breakout. with a stop-loss just below $ 31.
Of course for this pattern to be complete, CUP and Handle, USO has to close above $31 today. SO far so good, lets see where USO heads.
Again in this market its better to trade only a very small portion of your portfolio and if you do not use Technical analysis, then just stand back and watch.
I am not giving advice here but just thinking out loud.
Remember also that $33 is the previous low on USO, so when USO breaks 33, it becomes even stronger technically. Also $34 is just a first target, it can continue going higher and futeher targets are derived looking at the charts.
So how good are these Technical patterns? they are good until they are not. Thats why trading is tough and someone came up with stop-losses.
Trading is not picking great stocks, trading is good money management.
More on that later.

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