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Thursday, January 1, 2009

How come everyone on financial TV is bullish for 2009

I am seeing a lot of bullish analysis for 2009, almost 90% of people expect 2009 to be good. But the ones who saw and warned of the Bear market in 2008 expect the economy to perform badly and markets to be down or in a trading range. They expect any rallies to be bear market rallies.

In my opinion most on TV are bullish and expect 09 to be good just because, try to understand this, these guys are mostly money managers and if the common man removes money from the markets due to whats going on , they get less and less money to manage and therefore less money for themselves.
Now they get paid to manage the money, regardless of their performance.
Do you know that when they say they beat the markets for 5 years, it means that when the market was up they made more of course but when it was down all they have to do is be down a bit less than the markets and hey can claim they beat it.
Last year, 08 , the dow was down some 36%, so if a fund was down 35%, then they beat the market. Like that really helps the person whose money they manage.
All these guys want to make sure is that you do not withdraw money. They may be right that you make money in the long term so do now withdraw now, but I feel there is no need for someone to put new money.
Also if you see the markets we are a little over where we were in 1997. Click here for the S&P500 chart for the last 2 decades.

Most who saw this housing crisis were not perfect on when it would occur with the some warning for years going as far back as 2003-04 and many in 2005-06.
I am trading and in my opinion everyone should keep tight stop losses and trade in small sizes, smaller than usual.

So in my opinion these talking heads on TV have no clue whats going to happen but keep calling for rallies. These guys who are calling for a great 2009 , did these guys even see the recession coming? before September 08, when the markets fell off a cliff, most of these guys were questing the recession, waiting for the GDP to go negative.
So then they needed proof but now suddenly they have become great forecasters?

Now there are some smart people who are calling for a good rally and I will post that in the next post but overall do not worry about missing a great bull run , even if the markets rally, a healthy rally always comes back to the lows and then rebounds again , the process can take months.

If the consumer drives 2/3 of the US economy and retailers say business is very bad how can the TV talking heads now claim everything is good? Maybe it is for them , since these guys get paid even if they lose their clients money.
But i'd rather trust those who have been right.

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