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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

What a whack, this is more than a minor pullback

Wow, the markets fell huge and on huge volume, we had a 90:10 distribution day.
What is that? That means the volume on falling stocks was over 90% of the overall volume on Nasdaq and pretty close to that but below 90% on NYSE. For more info on that check this link and go to page 3 there.
That shows this was no ordinary pullback but massive distribution. We might bounce a bit but this drop now puts us back in a defensive position, if you trade only long.
For shorts it was great.
Further Crude Oil and hence USO fell below recent lows making new lows. This puts crude in a very tough spot. Looks like 35 is now the next stop. But before shorting USO keep in mind its very oversold , can rally anytime. But the path downward would be the path of least resistance imo.
I am going to buy a few UNG calls as it approaches 18 for a quick trade.
Gold is just oscilatting between 925 and 890 or so, a clear break in one direction would be tradeable BUT buying puts/shorting Gold in this environment is risky imo.

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